Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. Both writes two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has got something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
