Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: optimistic declarations are released from various governments. Immense energy is devoted on containing specific proposals. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from enemy soil, a capability enabled by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been dispatched to counter approaching cruise missiles flew past – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: multiple launches deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely delivered by Western nations. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly becomes sober acceptance: perhaps the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from ruin and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: multiple fatalities, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a dependence that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to replace in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from Washington generated strong feelings, controversy and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This trend will, no doubt, continue.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration functions according to a principle well known to international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration presumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to relinquish the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from thinking that the situation will not shift further in its benefit in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing civilians and areas but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its favour.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not move to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new plans based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show specific hesitation to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.
